Why the COVID-19 Pandemic is Not a Surprise

For researchers like Dr. Fred Cassels, who leads the Enteric and Diarrheal Diseases team at PATH’s Center for Vaccine Innovation and Access, the emergence of a new strain of coronavirus comes as no surprise.

As with influenza, he explains, there are hundreds of strains of coronavirus, most of which infect only animals. Milder variations can lead to the common cold. But other strains have significant mortality rates, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) at about 10 percent and Middle East respiratory syndrome at approximately 35 percent.

The SARS outbreak of 2002–2003 was fortunately contained within seven months. The rapid suppression also meant that funding and priorities drifted elsewhere. In 2004, Dr. Cassels joined the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) to manage the portfolio of projects that sprung up in reaction to the outbreak. He was discouraged by the lack of momentum to continue learning about the science of coronaviruses and what it would take to produce and fully test a vaccine: “I remember saying to the team, ‘It’s not if there’s another outbreak, but when.’”

Trends such as climate change, urbanization, and rapid international travel form an ideal breeding ground for infectious disease outbreaks. But Dr. Cassels insists that, from a scientific perspective, there’s reason for optimism—if we commit to learning from data.

He draws on his experience with SARS. During that outbreak, NIAID had a jump start on its response because of previous research findings on animal coronaviruses (uncovered before they jumped to humans) and on the strains known to cause the common cold in humans.

“We didn’t need to start from scratch,” Dr. Cassels says. “Like viruses, science can leap too, in surprising ways that can serve us if we maintain enough momentum on research and development—even when outbreaks are not in the news.”

While COVID-19 is a new strain, it’s a familiar virus. Dr. Cassels predicts that the earlier work on SARS vaccines will shorten the timeline for developing one to address COVID-19.